Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 140,651
2 Rhode Island 139,330
3 South Dakota 138,356
4 Utah 123,702
5 Tennessee 121,634
6 Arizona 118,258
7 Iowa 115,380
8 Nebraska 113,389
9 Wisconsin 113,167
10 Oklahoma 113,127
11 South Carolina 111,996
12 New Jersey 111,810
13 Arkansas 111,103
14 Alabama 107,498
15 Indiana 107,078
16 Delaware 106,641
17 Kansas 106,628
18 Illinois 105,122
19 Idaho 104,835
20 New York 104,796
21 Mississippi 104,663
22 Florida 103,481
23 Nevada 102,097
24 Montana 101,609
25 Minnesota 101,443
26 Georgia 101,056
27 Wyoming 100,212
28 Kentucky 99,826
29 Massachusetts 99,563
30 Texas 99,554
31 Louisiana 98,375
32 Missouri 97,661
33 Connecticut 94,792
34 California 94,609
35 New Mexico 94,055
36 Michigan 92,897
37 North Carolina 92,734
38 Alaska 91,983
39 Ohio 91,451
40 Pennsylvania 89,706
41 Colorado 88,375
42 West Virginia 84,982
43 Virginia 77,015
44 Maryland 73,718
45 New Hampshire 69,430
46 District of Columbia 67,351
47 Washington 52,790
48 Puerto Rico 51,343
49 Maine 45,149
50 Oregon 43,245
51 Vermont 36,415
52 Hawaii 22,929

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Michigan 554
2 Rhode Island 401
3 Alaska 351
4 Connecticut 298
5 North Carolina 277
6 Pennsylvania 257
7 Colorado 256
8 Maine 226
9 Minnesota 223
10 Washington 218
11 Florida 216
12 Delaware 212
13 North Dakota 203
14 Puerto Rico 198
15 Illinois 196
16 Idaho 195
17 Tennessee 194
18 Nevada 176
19 Wyoming 174
20 West Virginia 170
21 Massachusetts 167
22 New York 160
23 New Mexico 158
24 South Dakota 155
25 New Hampshire 143
26 Texas 141
27 Indiana 137
28 Oregon 134
29 Montana 133
30 Ohio 133
31 Kentucky 132
32 Mississippi 128
33 Wisconsin 128
34 Louisiana 127
35 Kansas 125
36 Maryland 123
37 Virginia 123
38 Iowa 117
39 Utah 113
40 Georgia 108
41 South Carolina 107
42 Nebraska 104
43 Missouri 100
44 District of Columbia 99
45 Arizona 93
46 Oklahoma 91
47 Vermont 78
48 Alabama 64
49 Arkansas 64
50 California 55
51 Hawaii 42
52 New Jersey -179

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,870
2 New York 2,652
3 Massachusetts 2,550
4 Rhode Island 2,518
5 Mississippi 2,416
6 Arizona 2,374
7 Connecticut 2,266
8 Louisiana 2,230
9 Alabama 2,218
10 South Dakota 2,217
11 Pennsylvania 2,045
12 North Dakota 1,990
13 Indiana 1,977
14 New Mexico 1,932
15 Illinois 1,910
16 Arkansas 1,897
17 Iowa 1,879
18 Michigan 1,861
19 South Carolina 1,839
20 Georgia 1,834
21 Nevada 1,768
22 Tennessee 1,768
23 Texas 1,733
24 Kansas 1,723
25 Oklahoma 1,715
26 Delaware 1,665
27 Ohio 1,641
28 Florida 1,630
29 District of Columbia 1,564
30 California 1,558
31 Missouri 1,503
32 West Virginia 1,491
33 Kentucky 1,477
34 Montana 1,466
35 Maryland 1,440
36 Wisconsin 1,293
37 Minnesota 1,275
38 Virginia 1,263
39 Nebraska 1,222
40 Wyoming 1,221
41 North Carolina 1,205
42 Idaho 1,145
43 Colorado 1,112
44 New Hampshire 953
45 Washington 725
46 Puerto Rico 715
47 Utah 683
48 Oregon 593
49 Maine 578
50 Alaska 451
51 Vermont 394
52 Hawaii 338

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Michigan 6
2 Oklahoma 6
3 Alaska 5
4 New Jersey 4
5 New Mexico 4
6 Connecticut 3
7 Georgia 3
8 Kentucky 3
9 Pennsylvania 3
10 Virginia 3
11 Wisconsin 3
12 Delaware 2
13 District of Columbia 2
14 Florida 2
15 Idaho 2
16 Louisiana 2
17 Maryland 2
18 Minnesota 2
19 Mississippi 2
20 Missouri 2
21 Nevada 2
22 New Hampshire 2
23 New York 2
24 North Carolina 2
25 Puerto Rico 2
26 Rhode Island 2
27 South Carolina 2
28 Alabama 1
29 California 1
30 Colorado 1
31 Illinois 1
32 Indiana 1
33 Kansas 1
34 Maine 1
35 Massachusetts 1
36 Montana 1
37 Nebraska 1
38 Ohio 1
39 South Dakota 1
40 Tennessee 1
41 Texas 1
42 Vermont 1
43 Washington 1
44 Wyoming 1
45 Arizona 0
46 Arkansas 0
47 Hawaii 0
48 Iowa 0
49 North Dakota 0
50 Oregon 0
51 Utah 0
52 West Virginia -27

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 357,752 1 99
Crowley Colorado 356,542 2 99
Bent Colorado 271,293 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 248,133 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 245,700 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 141,069 187 94
Richland South Carolina 110,172 994 68
York South Carolina 108,353 1069 65
Orange California 85,005 2168 30
Pierce Washington 53,801 2878 8

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,035 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 4 99
Hancock Georgia 7,686 5 99
Orange California 1,557 1825 41
Davidson Tennessee 1,338 2076 33
York South Carolina 1,338 2078 33
Richland South Carolina 1,306 2113 32
Pierce Washington 713 2740 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons